Monitoring COVID-19 in Colombia during the first year of the pandemic.

Background: COVID-19 cases in Medellín, the second largest city in Colombia, were monitored during the first year of the pandemic using both mathematical models based on transmission theory and surveillance from each observed epidemic phase. Design and Methods: Expected cases were estimated using mandatory reporting data from Colombia's national epidemiological surveillance system from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2021. Initially, the range of daily expected cases was estimated using a Borel-Tanner stochastic model and a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. A subsequent expanded version of the SIR model was used to include asymptomatic cases, severe cases and deaths. The moving average, standard deviation, and goodness of fit of estimated cases relative to confirmed reported cases were assessed, and local transmission in Medellin was contrasted with national transmission in Colombia. Results: The initial phase was characterized by imported case detection and the later phase by community transmission and increases in case magnitude and severity. In the initial phase, a maximum range of expected cases was obtained based on the stochastic model, which even accounted for the reduction of new imported cases following the closure of international airports. The deterministic estimate achieved an adequate fit with respect to accumulated cases until the conclusion of the mandatory national quarantine and gradual reopening, when reported cases increased. The estimated new cases were reasonably fit with the maximum reported incidence. Conclusion: Adequate model fit was obtained with the reported data. This experience of monitoring epidemic trajectory can be extended using models adapted to local conditions.

Seroprevalence against Diphtheria in Pregnant Women and Newborns in Colombia: New Arguments to Promote Maternal Immunization.

The tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine is recommended during pregnancy for neonatal protection against pertussis, although little is known of the protection it provides against diphtheria. The work used a cross-sectional design to estimate seroprevalence against diphtheria in 805 pregnant women with ≥37 gestation weeks and their newborns whose deliveries were attended in eight hospitals randomly chosen from a subregion of Antioquia, Colombia and to explore factors related with maternal protection. Levels of IgG antibodies were determined by using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Placental transfer of antibodies and crude and adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) were analyzed to describe factors related with maternal protection against diphtheria. Protection against diphtheria was observed in 91.7% (95% CI 90.3-93.0) of the pregnant women and 93.1% (95% CI 91.7-94.4) of newborns, whose antibody levels were positively correlated (Spearman's r = 0.769; p = 0.000). Maternal protection could be influenced by having been vaccinated during the current pregnancy (aPR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.93). The protective effect of vaccination during pregnancy and the efficiency of maternal antibody transfers were detected. Public health efforts should focus on increasing Tdap vaccination during each pregnancy to protect mothers and newborns against diphtheria.